#45: GREAT News for 'Team Natural Immunity'
Decisive study on the prevalence and durability of COVID-19 antibodies from recovered infection...
Happy Friday, All:
Well, we’ve been waiting for a study like this - one that should put the debate about the durability of natural immunity from recovered COVID-19 infection to bed. And we have one of the more vocal proponents of NI - Dr. Marty Makary - to thank for it (among an important list of others, as well). Link below from JAMA:
Prevalence and Durability of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Among Unvaccinated US Adults by History of COVID-19 (Alejo, Mitchell, Chang, et al., February 3, 2022).
In prior posts, we’ve pointed to various studies affirming natural immunity (especially those detailed in Brownstone Institute’s list) - but data on the prevalence and durability of antibodies derived from natural infection remained difficult to pin down. Remember when we wrestled with NCAA’s decision to recognize COVID-recovered players in the same category as “fully-vaccinated” - but only for 90 days?
Dr. Makary and his colleagues solved an important piece of the puzzle for us here. Through social media posts, they recruited healthy, unvaccinated adults to undergo COVID-19 antibody testing. Respondents fell into three equally-sized groups based on responses:
“COVID-confirmed” - reported a test-confirmed COVID-19 infection
“COVID-unconfirmed” - believed they had COVID-19 but were never tested
“No-COVID” - did not believe they ever had COVID-19 and never tested positive
Overall, the study included 816 individuals that underwent testing. The results are quoted below from the JAMA article linked above:
Among 295 reported COVID-confirmed participants, 293 (99%) tested positive for anti-RBD antibodies (≥250 U/mL, 44%; ≥500 U/mL, 27%; ≥1000 U/mL, 15%). A median of 8.7 (IQR, 1.9-12.9; range, 0-20) months passed since reported COVID-19 diagnosis. The median anti-RBD level among those who tested positive was 205 (IQR, 61-535) U/mL. There was no evidence of association between time after infection and antibody titer (0.8% increase [95% CI, –2.4% to 4.2%] per month, P = .62) (Figure).
Among 275 reported COVID-unconfirmed participants, 152 (55%) tested positive for anti-RBD antibodies (≥250 U/mL, 18%; ≥500 U/mL, 12%; ≥1000 U/mL, 6%). The median level among those who tested positive was 131 (IQR, 35-402) U/mL.
Among 246 reported no-COVID participants, 11% tested positive for anti-RBD antibodies (≥250 U/mL, 2%; ≥500 U/mL, 2%; ≥1000 U/mL, 2%). The median level among those who tested positive was 82 (IQR, 19-172) U/mL.
So clearly, with over 99% of COVID-confirmed participants testing positive for antibodies (as well as 55% of suspected-but-unconfirmed, and 11% of the no-COVID group) - naturally-acquired antibodies to COVID-19 were prevalent in the study.
Hugely important to this, in addition to prevalence, are the findings on durability. From the study: “Anti-RBD levels were observed after a positive COVID-19 test result up to 20 months, extending previous 6-month durability data.”
Up to 20 months - a MAJOR extension from the previous durability data suggesting 6 months. And to be clear, the data did not suggest a magical drop-off after 20 months - that simply was the time frame of the study based on how long COVID-19 has been around to test! In fact, antibody levels seemed remarkably resilient over that time frame - as displayed in the leftmost picture in Dr. Makary’s tweet below (and for good measure, I’ve included a quick interview with him on Fox News, as well):
If it wasn’t clear before this study (I’d argue it WAS clear, from a plethora of other studies - but I’m being generous)… downplaying or ignoring natural immunity makes ZERO practical sense from a public health standpoint. From mandates, to work policies that discriminate and favor vaccinated-status vs. natural immunity, it all needs to be thrown in the trash bin. Garbage policy based on garbage science.
I’ll be sharing this good news at the office, no doubt. And more than likely, I’ll still be doing jumping-jacks in the storage closet on my lunch break, rather than doing something more productive in the fitness center. I don’t expect things to change overnight - even though it should.
But the important thing is that on so many fronts - the *actual* science is coming through for common sense. In a matter of one day, with one study… natural immunity is now supported for 20 months, more than tripling the previous benchmark.
Of course, I’m thrilled with these results. But more consequentially, the skeptics of natural immunity see these results, too. In fact, a former-skeptic contributed to this very study - Dr. Dorry Segev. Phil Kerpen notes this below:
And since it’s Funday Friday, and I promised to go out on a high note - we turn to the Governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds, who announced the end of her Public Health Disaster Emergency Proclamation on February 15th:
“The flu and other infectious illnesses are part of our everyday lives, and coronavirus can be managed similarly.”
Here I am, sitting in Illinois, fresh of Governor Pritzker’s “state of the state” address where he still hailed masks, testing and vaccinations… and Iowa is ready to move on with life and end the disaster proclamation. I can hear the road west to freedom and normalcy, calling my name… Pack the bags, Decency family!
Positive movements, folks. Let’s carry the momentum through into the weekend.
Thanks for reading!
-G