Hello All,
Normally, after a blog post on a given topic or study in the COVID-world, I’m ready to tackle something new. These are intended to be bite-sized reads, mainly focused on one or two pieces of the pandemic puzzle.
But I can’t shake the Director of the CDC’s recent interviews - I almost numbered this one #27.5, because it’s more of a continuation of the last post than something new. We touched on the deaths from COVID vs. with it last time, but we have another comment worth addressing.
But first - a trip down memory lane, to October 2020.
The Background: Then a presidential candidate, Mr. Biden put out this definitive tweet:
“I’m going to shut down the virus.”
The Present: Needless to say, we’re closer to shutting down various parts of life these days than we are to shutting down COVID - especially for unvaccinated folks like me, who have to exercise in broom closets and drive to neighboring counties to grab a bite to eat with my family. It’s all for health, right!?
But just how high have cases risen?
1.1 million COVID cases in a day. And here’s a chart below to put things in context going back to the start of the craziness.
The Takeaway: As various personalities have pointed out, we’ve finally flattened the curve… except we flattened it on the wrong axis. Heck, the chart has required so much recent expansion that past waves look minor by comparison!
I’m refreshing all of this for a purpose - that is, to put the CDC’s current messaging pivot in proper context. We’ve lived for almost two years on the roller-coaster of case/death data represented above. I remember in 2020, you couldn’t walk by a TV with network news on it without seeing the latest numbers in big, scary font. Elections were determined, in part, by people’s perceptions of the pandemic and which candidate had a better plan to get us out of it.
And yet here we are today - cases have exploded compared to where we were last year, without widespread vaccines. And as of the time of writing, we’re awaiting opinions from the Supreme Court on Biden’s vaccine mandates - because somewhere, someone thinks forcing more of the same will suddenly make everything better!
Back to the CDC: All of this makes the CDC’s latest (emphasis on LATE) admissions very perplexing. Yesterday, we covered the acknowledgement of deaths from COVID being different from deaths with it. This wasn’t Director Walensky’s only notable comment (see below):
“The overwhelming number of deaths - over 75% - occurred in people who had at least 4 comorbidities. So really, these are people who are unwell to begin with.”
(Edited: See comment below - this percentage appears to be in reference to a particular study on vaccinated individuals, not necessarily applicable to all deaths attributed to COVID. No doubt, when that data becomes available it will be worthy of a future post!)
So over 3 out of 4 deaths (from COVID in a study of vaccinated persons) were in people with at least 4 comorbidities impacting their health. They’re citing this now - the vaccinated people that died with COVID had numerous, impactful health challenges. Make no mistake, all deaths are sad - we should all agree upon this as human beings. But comorbidities have not been actively discussed over the course of two years by the CDC (though questions have been asked since 2020) - quite the opposite, I’d argue the confused messaging scared huge swaths of the population, including otherwise healthy adults and children, into thinking COVID was a death sentence. That’s what a two year bombardment of fear-mongering will do - any understanding of relative risk is lost. And we may not know everything about COVID at this point - but there are significant differences in relative risk. That much seems clear.
And again, the effects of an overly-fearful response have been massive - we’ve endured two years of radical mitigations, unlike we’ve ever seen imposed on our society. We’ve seen business closures (particularly small business, restaurants, gyms, and others impacted by restrictions), as well educational disruptions (for many, a year of remote learning). How many of us have been separated from family and friends over fear of the virus - or over vaccination status? How many moments have been lost in angst and concern, as we stress over the future and wonder if we’ll ever get back to normal again?
Those moments are gone, folks. We won’t get them back. Some of the very people looking to pivot their messaging now played a role in this, by either downplaying or withholding meaningful data that could’ve brought down the fear level for millions. We should have a very clear understanding of the risk factors two years into COVID.
But why now? Why would they highlight these truths now when cases have exploded? I think Mr. Travis hits this nail on the head in his tweet, which is why I began this post with a trip through time.
COVID hasn’t been shut down - in fact, cases are higher than ever. And to cover for broken promises (both political and public health-oriented), the decision has been made to dial down the fear-mongering. The way you do that, of course, is by telling the truth about COVID. Being honest about the differences in relative risk, and focusing on the vulnerable among us - not the young, healthy (and COVID-recovered) front-line workers that were forced out of their jobs for refusing their vaccines. Not the nurses, firefighters/paramedics, academics, government workers and countless others who have paid the professional price for standing up to mandates.
Someone in power has to know this. They see the polls heading into a midterm election year. Mandates are unpopular. People are angry that COVID is still weighing down society, and shutting down schools. Democrats, primarily at the helm of the strictest mitigations and mandates, have many reasons to angst over election night 2022.
And yet… even as the CDC Director herself admits that there are numerous, significant comorbidities behind 75+% of deaths attributable to COVID in a recent study of the vaccinated, we have politicians willing to consider additional mandates on the strongest among us (at least in terms of battling COVID) - schoolchildren.
I can’t comprehend this. The CDC Director is seemingly trying to turn DOWN the fear dial after two years of alarm (citing a study on vaccinated persons with overall rare death statistics), meanwhile politicians are considering ramping UP divisive mandates - particularly for low-risk populations such as schoolchildren. Again, where is relative risk in the conversation? Accurate, truthful data is the only way to bring it back into the forefront.
C’mon, 2022. I asked you to be different in a good way. More truths, less mandates, please.
We’ll see where things go, but as always, more to come! Thanks for reading, and please consider sharing if you know of others who like us, find themselves scratching their heads at the world today. I appreciate you all!
-G
Update: I looked for a longer video of Dr. Walensky's interview to hear the comments before and after the brief clip above. The percentage offered in the clip (75+%) appears to come from a study of 1,228,664 people who "completed primary vaccination during December 2020-2021" - according to this study, severe COVID-19 outcomes or death were rare - but among those that died, 78% had at least four underlying conditions.
I wanted to make sure I posted that here for better context.
I'd still be interested in data on comorbidities and severe outcomes/death in COVID overall, of course - perhaps a follow-up for Director Walensky. The percentages may change once expanded outside of one particular study, but if the presence of (multiple) severe comorbidities still influence one's risk of death from COVID in a significant way, as opposed to those otherwise in good health - this data would still go a long way toward informing us on the true risks of COVID, both for those vulnerable and those less vulnerable based on age, health, etc.
Thanks!
-G